Idea Froth

Charlie Munger's 24 Standard Causes of Human Misjudgment

My own wording of Charlie Munger’s Psychology of Human Misjudgment.

Because putting it in my own words will help me to remember them.  I'm not sure what the "official" 24 Standard Causes were on the handout referred to in the transcript. 

 

Tom’s 24 Standard Causes of Irrational Behavior

1. "This is how I get paid"  People behave irrationally when there’s an incentive or reward system
   
2. "I'm on her side."  People behave irrationally because they under-recognize the power of incentives to create bias in their own rationality or in the mind of people advising them.  Easy to forget "whose bread I eat, their song I sing."
3. "I can't believe that." People behave irrationally because of psychological denial
4. "This is what I agreed to before."  People behave irrationally because of consistency and commitment bias. It leads to people shutting out new ideas/actions that contradict their earlier conclusions or commitments.  This leads to confirmation bias.
5. "That's too hard."  "I like this."  People behave irrationally when there’s Pavlovian reinforcement, or even if they have insufficient information because of some positive or negative associations
6. "You've done something for me." People behave irrationally when they feel the need to reciprocate, including when someone asks for a lot, and then backs off, you feel a need to reciprocate in kind.
7. "This is how I'm supposed to behave."  People behave irrationally when they feel like they need to fulfill a role, and act as others expect
8. "This is what the winners do." People behave irrationally because of over-influence by social proof, what others are doing, especially under conditions of uncertainty and stress
9. "I remember what supports my theory."  People behave irrationally when they have a couple models of how the world works, and then apply everything to that model.  "To the man with a hammer, every problem looks like a nail."  Better to have lots of tools in the toolbox.  This leads to confirmation bias.
10. "Compared to what I've seen, this is good."  People behave irrationally when contrast-caused distortions of perception or cognition.  When we measure things simply by comparing them to other things we know about.
11. "Yes, sir."  People behave irrationally when over-influenced by authority.
12. "Don't take that from me!" People behave irrationally when threatened with scarcity, including threatened removal of something almost possessed, but never possessed.
13. "I want what you have."  People behave irrationally when envious or jealous.  Especially on a subconscious level.
14. "Thatsh the besht thing evarr." People behave irrationally when chemically dependent
15. "I'm feeling lucky!"  People behave irrationally from a gambling compulsion when the rewards are variable.
16. "Those elites may not like it, but I'm gonna do it anyways."  People behave irrationally when liking or disliking distorts their thinking.  This not only include people we like or dislike, but also our own kind, and our own ideas.
17. "I figure it's 50-50." People behave irrationally because the human brain is non-mathematical in nature, and we tend to use crude heuristics rather than probabilities and properly weighing available information.  For example, we tend to overweigh conveniently available information, or the items on this list can make us forget the importance of consequences
18. "I feel sorry for him."  People behave irrationally because of emotions, and because of appeals to emotions may lead us to forget the bigger picture
19. "Yikes!  That's incredible!"  People behave irrationally because we can be overly influenced by extra-vivid evidence.
20. "Yeah, cuz uh-huh."  People behave irrationally because they get mentally confused by not having thought out the answer to “Why?”  Or, they get information that apparently, but not really answers the question “Why?”
21. "I can't remember everything." People behave irrationally because of normal limitations of sensation, memory, cognition and knowledge
22. "Aaargh!  I need relief!"  People behave irrationally because of stress-induced mental changes, small and large, temporary and permanent.
23. "Use it or lose it."  People  behave irrationally because of common mental illnesses and mental declines, temporary and permanent, including the tendency to lose ability through disuse.
24. "Well, to be honest, I think we should meet up again and talk about it further."  People behave irrationally in organizations because of say-something syndrome when people are incoherent and can’t handle what they need to communicate.

When several of these causes are going on at once, then it really screws with our thinking.

Reasons to Have Children

Was wondering today about reasons to have children.

Before coming up with my own list, I did a quick Google search and decided to cut and past what others have said.  Yes, yes, I know it's not creative or original.  I just am busy, and find it easier to have it all in one place...  I'm not saying I agree with all the below points, but I haven't time to cut out the bits I don't like...

http://www.playagaingames.com/interesting/children

1. They're cute. In fact, your own child is adorable. Every sigh, every laugh, every motion is bliss. You fall in love with them.
2. Re-experiencing childhood. Regardless of how good your own childhood was, your child allows you to vicariously relive childhood. Usually it's much better the second time around, when you have all the wisdom of age but can enjoy the energy of youth. Playing with a two-year-old feels like being two years old again.
3. Learning. Watching your child learn is fascinating and fun. Each new skill or idea or word learned is a little victory. If you watch carefully, you will see that something new is discovered or conquered every single day. Your child will need to learn a lot from you, as he or she starts without much knowledge at all except for perfect sense of his or her feelings. While you are busy teaching your child about practical aspects of the world, your child will be teaching you emotional sensitivity. The active teaching and learning process is rewarding and fulfilling.
4. Reflection. Everything that you already can do probably take for granted, but your child will remind you that all those skills had to be learned. It reminds you of how far you have come in life, and shows you the sorts of difficulties you probably had when you were your child's age. Your child will also notice things that you have long since filtered out. I didn't realize how many birds there were outside my house until my daughter showed me.
5. Reincarnation. Your genetic makeup is a small part of your identity. More important are your ideas, beliefs, manners, and stories. All of these things will be taken up by your child and then changed around. Your child will never be a clone of yourself, fortunately, but instead will be a new variation of you and the other people that raise him or her. If you like yourself then this is very satisfying.
6. Socializing. Every society has a subculture for people who raise children. At every age you can find people also raising a child in a similar situation. You can make many new friends with whom you have a lot in common. The comradely and shared experiences ease some difficulties.
7. Control. You must not tell other people how to raise their own children. However, if you raise your own child, you get to do it your way, which you presumably believe is the right way. People might disagree with your methods, but if you have thought at great length about it--and you should if you plan on having a child--then you probably have good reasons for all the decisions you will have to make. When you find that your methods are not perfect, which you will, you can change them appropriately.
8. Adoption. There are lots of children in the world without parents. Adopting a child is an excellent way to greatly improve the life of someone who would have a very hard time otherwise.
9. Entertainment. Children have lots of energy and can be lots of fun. They develop imaginations, a sense of humor, and lots of excitement. Little kid laughs are infectious. Playing with children is very enjoyable.
10. Love. You are the center of your child's world, and as much as you may love and need your child, he or she will love you more. Children that are shown love and affection show it back many times over.

http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20061220104247AAaVMAZ
posted by BUSY

• You finally stop to smell the roses, because your baby is in your arms.
• The sacrifices you thought you made to have a child no longer seem like sacrifices.
• You respect your parents and love them in a new way.
• You believe once again in the things you believed in as a child.
• You lose touch with the people in your life whom you should have banished years ago.
• Every day is a surprise.
• Bodily functions are no longer repulsive. In fact, they please you. (Hooray for poop!)
• You look at your baby in the mirror instead of yourself.
• You become a morning person.
• Your love becomes limitless, a superhuman power.
• You finally realize that true joy doesn't come from material wealth
• You don't mind going to bed at 9 p.m. on Friday night
• You discover an inner strength you never thought you
• You realize that you can love a complete stranger

also from Yahoo answers, by Wildcat9
The joys of having a raising a child are unmeasureable! First, it changes the whole way you percieve life. Now, I have someone who needs me and watches every move I make. I am their whole world. I can show them and teach them. I get to watch every little discovery along the way, which is pure joy. Then, I am the one they turn to when they need something. My kiss can fix anything, in their eyes. The responsiblities are tremendous, but the joys outweigh any kind of doubt or pain or worry. My children will be my legacy in life. What I teach them they will carry forever, pass on to their own children, and hopefully make the world a better place to live in. As far as handicapped children, one of mine is. she wears a prosthetic leg. First, she is not handicapped, she is handicapable! Second, a child with special needs somehow teaches you more than you ever knew you could learn. Those children, are the happiest children you will find. They don't care about why they are different, and sometimes they don't even notice. But they are happy and it spreads to others. I understand that having a child with special needs is difficult, but it is a joy as well. I would not trade any of my children for an easier day or a less hectic one. I hope this tells you how I feel. Children are the world's future, and as parents, we get to shape that future. It is an awsome thing.

http://domestic-vocation.blogspot.com/2007/10/another-40-reasons-to-have-children.html

1. You can't understand unconditional love until you look at the trusting eyes of your infant.

2. "I love you" takes on a whole new meaning.

3. Sudden bravery: timid women can suddenly become bears in defense of their babies!

4. Realizing that God has entrusted a living soul to you and your husband!

5. Realizing that God has not left you alone to tend that soul.

6. Tiny fingers grasping yours as you feed her in the middle of the dark, silent night.

7. Piles of drawings and love notes that say things like "I LOVE YOU MOMMY LOVES LITTLE GIRL" - and having them taped up around the computer, all over the bedroom, in the bathrooms, in the hallways...

8. Priceless art looks a lot like crayon on computer paper instead of oil on canvas.

9. You really don't need those shoes as much as the growing-like-a-weed children! And you suddenly find that you don't mind having ratty old sneakers.

10. Your children are ready to call and complain to Wal Mart that they cannot nominate you for Teacher of the Year because you homeschool.

11. Soft baby skin against your own.

12. That sweaty spot under your chin that comes from the baby falling asleep on your chest while you were dozing.

13. Remember how great it was the first time you received Holy Communion/went to Disney World/sat on Santa's lap/grew something in the garden/rode your bike without training wheels/sat on a horse alone/jumped a wave at the beach? It's junk compared to watching your children experience the same childhood joys for the first time! (Who would have thunk that the character parade at Disney World was a cause for tears??)

14. You don't have to feel guilty for singing Veggie Tales songs.

15. You also don't feel guilty any more for reading The Giving Tree again and again.

16. You get to read all the children's books you missed the first time around!

17. Your children think you are the prettiest woman in the world.

18. They also think you are the best artist in the world.

19. You suddenly appreciate your own parents much more and realize that they weren't really too strict most of the time.

20. Cuddling under a big fleece blanket while watching movies together.

21. Remembering why it's fun to play in the snow.

22. Listening to their prayers.

23. Watching them do a silent acting show where they dress up to be Indians and take turns hunting and then use the stuffed puppy dog as a "deer" because they have no stuffed deer and then they gut the stuffed puppy and roast it on a spit that is actually a stick-horse and then proceed to eat it but that is not as funny as when they decide that the deer should be bigger so the younger daughter becomes the deer and gets shot with an arrow and gutted and eaten in the second act and you have to control yourself and not laugh too much or pee yourself because that will only serve to embarrass them. (shhhhhh...don't tell them I told you that)

24. Little smiles that light up the entire world.

25. When you add more children to your family, the love mulitplies - not divides.

26. Thanksgiving, Christmas, and other big holidays would be very lonely if you didn't have anyone to share it with.

27. Your mundane childhood is so much more interesting to your children than it is to you.

28. Laundry was never as fun as it was when I was folding those teeny, tiny clothes - especially the socks!

29. First steps.

30. Birthday parties at your house where you have Yard Olympics and the kids have to do a relay race and run in Dad's boxer shorts and T-shirts.

31. Realizing that a party in the park or a party where kids trip um, run in Dad's boxer shorts is actually at least as much fun (if not more) than the party with the juggler or the magician.

32. Watching them win at sports. (Or watching them lose with grace.)

33. Your husband is never as manly as he is when he is being Daddy with the kids.

34. Your dream vacations actually consist of doing things with your family instead of sunning yourself on a beach alone with your husband. And you don't care. You actually like it better.

35. Your husband becomes the strongest man in the world, and your daughter tells you that if he weren't already married to you, she'd marry her Daddy. Because he is perfect. (Which you always suspected, anyway.)

36. When your husband travels for work, you've got plenty of company!

37. What other reason do you have to read Beatrix Potter books out loud?

38. You get to skip through Wal Mart's parking lot while singing "Here We Go Looby-Loo."

39. You get to watch your husband skip through Wal Mart's parking lot. (No singing.)

40. Some day, when you are old and gray, little babies will come and visit you again, brought to you by the very same people who were once so small and tiny. And you'll get to experience so much of this list again. And, if you are blessed with a long life, again with your great-grandchildren.

http://karenedmisten.blogspot.com/2007/10/40-reasons-to-have-kids.html
40 Reasons to Have Kids.
(loosely based on her 40 reasons not to ....)

1. Desiring children with the man you love is as natural as breathing.

2. The experience of delivering a new life to the world is singularly exhilarating. If you fear pain, there's this lovely thing called an epidural.

3. Breastfeeding: it's not only economical, efficient, and good for the baby, but it releases hormones that relax and calm both mother and child, lulling both of you to sleep. Who wouldn't want a natural nap-inducer?

4. The world doesn't revolve around me and my daily desires.

5. Every human being has dignity and worth.

6. A child is an unbreakable bond between husband and wife. Love breeds love. And more love. And more. There's nothing more desirable than the father of your children.

7. A couple becomes a family  -- the whole becomes greater than its parts.

8. Having a child is a cooperation with the sacred.

9. Children are some of the most charming little people I know: full of wonder, curiosity and innate kindness. Properly nurtured, they become equally charming adults.

10. You get to read all the favorite books of your childhood all over again.

11. Children naturally grasp the lesson that people are more important than things.

12. Children teach us the freedom that comes with self-discipline and self-sacrifice.

13. The biggest drudgery is facing no one but myself day after day.

14. I am not ideal ... why should I expect my children to be? Kids teach us the joy of unconditional love and acceptance.

15. I will inevitably disappoint my children because I am not perfect. But, along the way, I'll be able to teach them that -- while nothing on this side of heaven is perfect -- the journey and the perfection that awaits us are worth every moment of trial on earth.

16. To remain or become a self-centered, self-enclosed egotist: what horror!

17. Taking time to care for the gifts I've been given ... yes, thank you.

18. Motherhood is a vocation: fulfilling, rewarding, and full of unpredictable surprises.

19. Families: they are a reflection of the Trinity.

20. Relive childhood and all of its innocent wonder and mirth.

21. To persist in saying "me first" is a sign of immaturity.

22. A child will ignite the fond memories of your own childhood.

23. While you cannot ensure that your child will be happy 100% of the time, the desire for her happiness is a good, admirable and unselfish thing.

24. The enchantment of being with one's children outweighs any and all other difficulties.

25. If you worry about sending them off to school, homeschooling is a delightful, intellectually stimulating option.

26. Do something to change the world. Have a child.  Raise a saint.

27. Revel in the simplicity of a child's unconditional love and trust.

28. Parenting will soften your hard edges and sharpen your compassion and empathy.

29. Motherhood is an insight into one's soul.  It's better than analysis.

30. Success is not defined only in terms of what one does for money.  To succeed as a mother is beyond worldly success.

31. When your husband becomes the father of your children, a new man appears: fiercely loving but practical and still-logical, nurturing but fiercely strong and protective. You will fall in love with him all over again.

32. The child to whom you give life may be the one to fight the culture of death and the notion of a brave new world.

33. "How can there be too many children? That is like saying there are too many flowers."  -- Blessed Teresa of Calcutta

34. Children whittle away your time in ways that are ultimately beneficial: they have an uncanny knack for getting rid of the meaningless hobbies that used to consume you.

35. Watching a child grow into a caring, sensitive soul is a reward that cannot be measured in book sales.

36. It's an awe-inspiring thing to have a child and the experience of feeling, "I didn't think I could ever love anyone that much."

37. Already have a child? Have another. Siblings are the best birthday presents, Christmas presents, Father's Day presents, Arbor Day presents ....

38. Baby toes.  Need I say more?

39. Okay, I'll say more.  Watching your baby sleep: You didn't know that angels could be held in your arms.

40. Worried about money?  What's worth more than a soul?

What to do with your life

As I ponder the great question of what to do with my life, I've found good guideposts along the way. 

Here's a list of advice from others on how to figure out what to do with your life.

Helpful

How to Do What You Love by Paul Graham.  Seems both pragmatic and insightful from an  accomplished person.

How to Find What You Love To Do Haven't tried his method yet, but it looks like a good start. 
How to Discover Your Life Purpose in 20 Minutes  by Steve Pavlina  haven't tried his method yet, but he seems to have figured out his own purpose
On Genius - Is Your Genius At Work? by Dick Richards I got the book, but what I came up with is too "general" to bring a specific goal.  Then I lent out the book, so I never did the exercises to figure that part out.

Ken Robinson on nurturing creativity in education (~20 min video) Not exactly on topic, but somehow related and reassuring.

[update 7 Aug] How To Do What You Love - advice for those in academia from The Chronicle of Higher Education. Yet the "Library Vacation" seems like could be good advice for me... 

Background
Steve Job's Commencement Speech at Stanford.  A good speech on the importance of doing what you love.
Find my... um... passion What?! A good description of the problem

Bleh

Finding Work That You Love  Somehow, this one seems overly sanitized, and tidy and condensed.  I think it is too impersonal.

Psychology of Misjudgement

Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett's right hand man, gave a speech talking about the Psychology of Human Misjudgement.  Seems these lessons he's learned have helped him make money, and protect his money.

I found it after reading this speech he gave, which got me curious about wondering what those misjudgements are...   Here's the summary

Personality and Philosophy of Life

Hmph.  Maybe a catalogue of Philosophies of Life is simply another way at looking at Personalities. 

Was looking into the Myers-Briggs personality descriptions, since I have been distressed about the limitations of my weaknesses in a work environment.  Anyways, ran across another theory, called the Five-Factor Model of Personality.

Good food for thought.  I took one of the quick personality tests for it, but didn't like the way the groupings were done.  And somehow, some of my feelings at the moment (feeling disorganized, feeling withdrawn at work) are temporary, and not really a personality trait.

The differences between the two personality models are taken from the link mentioned above

INTP Weaknesses

Ran across my Myers-Briggs personality type. INTP: http://www.intp.org/intprofile.html

These areas of weakness are pretty noticeable in my life.  Question... If I take care of these issues, does that mean my personality changes? Or... if I fully am in synch with my personality, does it mean that I won't want to work on these areas...

Do I focus on my strengths, and just be philosophical and accepting about my weaknesses?  Do I focus on "workarounds" for my weaknesses so that I can mitigate and alleviate them?

Here's a summary of the weaknesses...

Down Time

Idea for a book.  Down Time.  How our unquenched need for recharging time leads to poor job performance, strained relationships, unfullfilled lives, wasted time, etc.

Basically, browsing through Betty Friedan's Feminie Mystique got me thinking about the power of putting a name to an unquenched frustration. 

Since my recognition of the need for down time is particularly high, I realized that maybe most Americans have a need for down time and don't realize it.

I think back in the 80s, a lot of noise was made about the concept of "Stress."  How to deal with it, how it occurs, how it affects our lives. 

Well, the concept of Down Time is a related one.  Not exactly one-to-one, but I think it has potential to be a trend maker for a few years.

Basically, as an Introvert, I need to "recharge" by having downtime.  Reading is good, so is working outside in the garden.  My wife needs to recharge in similar ways. 

When we don't recharge, we get irritable, we get short tempered, we start doing things that are halfway attempts to recharge but aren't particularly effective.  Reading on the internet during work.  Watching TV excessively.  Sitting down motionless on the couch and staring into space.  Avoiding talking to people. 

Anyways, since this is Idea Froth, and not a place for full blown explanations, that's about all I have to say on the subject for the moment.

The Philosophy of Life Catalogue

I think it would be cool to have a book/resource cataloging people's philosophies of life. 
I imagine everything from a crack whore's views on the world to a peasant farmer to a middle class salaryman to a spiritual leader.   The spectrum of how they view life could be revealing and enlightening.  Their world is a reflection of them, and they are a reflection of their world. 
And their understanding of their world, their understanding of themselves and those around them could be useful for seeing not only the consequences of a worldview, but also how various philosophies fare under vastly different living conditions. 

Useful for wisdom

Life as a researcher

The word I was searching for finally popped into my head.  I'm a researcher.  OK, well, since I dislike labelling, perhaps it's more precise to say that one of the things that comes rather easily to me is research.  Furthermore, one of the things I enjoy doing is research. 

By thinking of myself as a researcher, it seems to explain a lot, and also give me pause for thought...  How can I live a comfortable, well-off life as a researcher?  What am I interested in researching? 

Haa.  Just thought of something amusing.  I should research how to live a comfortable, well-off life as a researcher.

how did Peace & Love get popular in 60s?

Saw Ringo Starr on Daily Show the other night.  He made some reference to Love, that reminded me of the things said in the 60s.

Made me wonder, how did the whole notion of Love and Expand Your Consciousness and Community get so popular in the 60s?  Who started this expansion into popular consciousness and culture?  Even if there were elements of reaction to Vietnam War, or reaction to conformity of 50s/Early 60s, what were the steps by which it came widely known?  Who were the key people that led the movement?  Were the Beatles reflecting this gestalt, or leading it?  etc. etc..