Idea Froth

Charlie Munger's 24 Standard Causes of Human Misjudgment

My own wording of Charlie Munger’s Psychology of Human Misjudgment.

Because putting it in my own words will help me to remember them.  I'm not sure what the "official" 24 Standard Causes were on the handout referred to in the transcript. 

 

Tom’s 24 Standard Causes of Irrational Behavior

1. "This is how I get paid"  People behave irrationally when there’s an incentive or reward system
   
2. "I'm on her side."  People behave irrationally because they under-recognize the power of incentives to create bias in their own rationality or in the mind of people advising them.  Easy to forget "whose bread I eat, their song I sing."
3. "I can't believe that." People behave irrationally because of psychological denial
4. "This is what I agreed to before."  People behave irrationally because of consistency and commitment bias. It leads to people shutting out new ideas/actions that contradict their earlier conclusions or commitments.  This leads to confirmation bias.
5. "That's too hard."  "I like this."  People behave irrationally when there’s Pavlovian reinforcement, or even if they have insufficient information because of some positive or negative associations
6. "You've done something for me." People behave irrationally when they feel the need to reciprocate, including when someone asks for a lot, and then backs off, you feel a need to reciprocate in kind.
7. "This is how I'm supposed to behave."  People behave irrationally when they feel like they need to fulfill a role, and act as others expect
8. "This is what the winners do." People behave irrationally because of over-influence by social proof, what others are doing, especially under conditions of uncertainty and stress
9. "I remember what supports my theory."  People behave irrationally when they have a couple models of how the world works, and then apply everything to that model.  "To the man with a hammer, every problem looks like a nail."  Better to have lots of tools in the toolbox.  This leads to confirmation bias.
10. "Compared to what I've seen, this is good."  People behave irrationally when contrast-caused distortions of perception or cognition.  When we measure things simply by comparing them to other things we know about.
11. "Yes, sir."  People behave irrationally when over-influenced by authority.
12. "Don't take that from me!" People behave irrationally when threatened with scarcity, including threatened removal of something almost possessed, but never possessed.
13. "I want what you have."  People behave irrationally when envious or jealous.  Especially on a subconscious level.
14. "Thatsh the besht thing evarr." People behave irrationally when chemically dependent
15. "I'm feeling lucky!"  People behave irrationally from a gambling compulsion when the rewards are variable.
16. "Those elites may not like it, but I'm gonna do it anyways."  People behave irrationally when liking or disliking distorts their thinking.  This not only include people we like or dislike, but also our own kind, and our own ideas.
17. "I figure it's 50-50." People behave irrationally because the human brain is non-mathematical in nature, and we tend to use crude heuristics rather than probabilities and properly weighing available information.  For example, we tend to overweigh conveniently available information, or the items on this list can make us forget the importance of consequences
18. "I feel sorry for him."  People behave irrationally because of emotions, and because of appeals to emotions may lead us to forget the bigger picture
19. "Yikes!  That's incredible!"  People behave irrationally because we can be overly influenced by extra-vivid evidence.
20. "Yeah, cuz uh-huh."  People behave irrationally because they get mentally confused by not having thought out the answer to “Why?”  Or, they get information that apparently, but not really answers the question “Why?”
21. "I can't remember everything." People behave irrationally because of normal limitations of sensation, memory, cognition and knowledge
22. "Aaargh!  I need relief!"  People behave irrationally because of stress-induced mental changes, small and large, temporary and permanent.
23. "Use it or lose it."  People  behave irrationally because of common mental illnesses and mental declines, temporary and permanent, including the tendency to lose ability through disuse.
24. "Well, to be honest, I think we should meet up again and talk about it further."  People behave irrationally in organizations because of say-something syndrome when people are incoherent and can’t handle what they need to communicate.

When several of these causes are going on at once, then it really screws with our thinking.

Reasons to Have Children

Was wondering today about reasons to have children.

Before coming up with my own list, I did a quick Google search and decided to cut and past what others have said.  Yes, yes, I know it's not creative or original.  I just am busy, and find it easier to have it all in one place...  I'm not saying I agree with all the below points, but I haven't time to cut out the bits I don't like...

http://www.playagaingames.com/interesting/children

1. They're cute. In fact, your own child is adorable. Every sigh, every laugh, every motion is bliss. You fall in love with them.
2. Re-experiencing childhood. Regardless of how good your own childhood was, your child allows you to vicariously relive childhood. Usually it's much better the second time around, when you have all the wisdom of age but can enjoy the energy of youth. Playing with a two-year-old feels like being two years old again.
3. Learning. Watching your child learn is fascinating and fun. Each new skill or idea or word learned is a little victory. If you watch carefully, you will see that something new is discovered or conquered every single day. Your child will need to learn a lot from you, as he or she starts without much knowledge at all except for perfect sense of his or her feelings. While you are busy teaching your child about practical aspects of the world, your child will be teaching you emotional sensitivity. The active teaching and learning process is rewarding and fulfilling.
4. Reflection. Everything that you already can do probably take for granted, but your child will remind you that all those skills had to be learned. It reminds you of how far you have come in life, and shows you the sorts of difficulties you probably had when you were your child's age. Your child will also notice things that you have long since filtered out. I didn't realize how many birds there were outside my house until my daughter showed me.
5. Reincarnation. Your genetic makeup is a small part of your identity. More important are your ideas, beliefs, manners, and stories. All of these things will be taken up by your child and then changed around. Your child will never be a clone of yourself, fortunately, but instead will be a new variation of you and the other people that raise him or her. If you like yourself then this is very satisfying.
6. Socializing. Every society has a subculture for people who raise children. At every age you can find people also raising a child in a similar situation. You can make many new friends with whom you have a lot in common. The comradely and shared experiences ease some difficulties.
7. Control. You must not tell other people how to raise their own children. However, if you raise your own child, you get to do it your way, which you presumably believe is the right way. People might disagree with your methods, but if you have thought at great length about it--and you should if you plan on having a child--then you probably have good reasons for all the decisions you will have to make. When you find that your methods are not perfect, which you will, you can change them appropriately.
8. Adoption. There are lots of children in the world without parents. Adopting a child is an excellent way to greatly improve the life of someone who would have a very hard time otherwise.
9. Entertainment. Children have lots of energy and can be lots of fun. They develop imaginations, a sense of humor, and lots of excitement. Little kid laughs are infectious. Playing with children is very enjoyable.
10. Love. You are the center of your child's world, and as much as you may love and need your child, he or she will love you more. Children that are shown love and affection show it back many times over.

http://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20061220104247AAaVMAZ
posted by BUSY

• You finally stop to smell the roses, because your baby is in your arms.
• The sacrifices you thought you made to have a child no longer seem like sacrifices.
• You respect your parents and love them in a new way.
• You believe once again in the things you believed in as a child.
• You lose touch with the people in your life whom you should have banished years ago.
• Every day is a surprise.
• Bodily functions are no longer repulsive. In fact, they please you. (Hooray for poop!)
• You look at your baby in the mirror instead of yourself.
• You become a morning person.
• Your love becomes limitless, a superhuman power.
• You finally realize that true joy doesn't come from material wealth
• You don't mind going to bed at 9 p.m. on Friday night
• You discover an inner strength you never thought you
• You realize that you can love a complete stranger

also from Yahoo answers, by Wildcat9
The joys of having a raising a child are unmeasureable! First, it changes the whole way you percieve life. Now, I have someone who needs me and watches every move I make. I am their whole world. I can show them and teach them. I get to watch every little discovery along the way, which is pure joy. Then, I am the one they turn to when they need something. My kiss can fix anything, in their eyes. The responsiblities are tremendous, but the joys outweigh any kind of doubt or pain or worry. My children will be my legacy in life. What I teach them they will carry forever, pass on to their own children, and hopefully make the world a better place to live in. As far as handicapped children, one of mine is. she wears a prosthetic leg. First, she is not handicapped, she is handicapable! Second, a child with special needs somehow teaches you more than you ever knew you could learn. Those children, are the happiest children you will find. They don't care about why they are different, and sometimes they don't even notice. But they are happy and it spreads to others. I understand that having a child with special needs is difficult, but it is a joy as well. I would not trade any of my children for an easier day or a less hectic one. I hope this tells you how I feel. Children are the world's future, and as parents, we get to shape that future. It is an awsome thing.

http://domestic-vocation.blogspot.com/2007/10/another-40-reasons-to-have-children.html

1. You can't understand unconditional love until you look at the trusting eyes of your infant.

2. "I love you" takes on a whole new meaning.

3. Sudden bravery: timid women can suddenly become bears in defense of their babies!

4. Realizing that God has entrusted a living soul to you and your husband!

5. Realizing that God has not left you alone to tend that soul.

6. Tiny fingers grasping yours as you feed her in the middle of the dark, silent night.

7. Piles of drawings and love notes that say things like "I LOVE YOU MOMMY LOVES LITTLE GIRL" - and having them taped up around the computer, all over the bedroom, in the bathrooms, in the hallways...

8. Priceless art looks a lot like crayon on computer paper instead of oil on canvas.

9. You really don't need those shoes as much as the growing-like-a-weed children! And you suddenly find that you don't mind having ratty old sneakers.

10. Your children are ready to call and complain to Wal Mart that they cannot nominate you for Teacher of the Year because you homeschool.

11. Soft baby skin against your own.

12. That sweaty spot under your chin that comes from the baby falling asleep on your chest while you were dozing.

13. Remember how great it was the first time you received Holy Communion/went to Disney World/sat on Santa's lap/grew something in the garden/rode your bike without training wheels/sat on a horse alone/jumped a wave at the beach? It's junk compared to watching your children experience the same childhood joys for the first time! (Who would have thunk that the character parade at Disney World was a cause for tears??)

14. You don't have to feel guilty for singing Veggie Tales songs.

15. You also don't feel guilty any more for reading The Giving Tree again and again.

16. You get to read all the children's books you missed the first time around!

17. Your children think you are the prettiest woman in the world.

18. They also think you are the best artist in the world.

19. You suddenly appreciate your own parents much more and realize that they weren't really too strict most of the time.

20. Cuddling under a big fleece blanket while watching movies together.

21. Remembering why it's fun to play in the snow.

22. Listening to their prayers.

23. Watching them do a silent acting show where they dress up to be Indians and take turns hunting and then use the stuffed puppy dog as a "deer" because they have no stuffed deer and then they gut the stuffed puppy and roast it on a spit that is actually a stick-horse and then proceed to eat it but that is not as funny as when they decide that the deer should be bigger so the younger daughter becomes the deer and gets shot with an arrow and gutted and eaten in the second act and you have to control yourself and not laugh too much or pee yourself because that will only serve to embarrass them. (shhhhhh...don't tell them I told you that)

24. Little smiles that light up the entire world.

25. When you add more children to your family, the love mulitplies - not divides.

26. Thanksgiving, Christmas, and other big holidays would be very lonely if you didn't have anyone to share it with.

27. Your mundane childhood is so much more interesting to your children than it is to you.

28. Laundry was never as fun as it was when I was folding those teeny, tiny clothes - especially the socks!

29. First steps.

30. Birthday parties at your house where you have Yard Olympics and the kids have to do a relay race and run in Dad's boxer shorts and T-shirts.

31. Realizing that a party in the park or a party where kids trip um, run in Dad's boxer shorts is actually at least as much fun (if not more) than the party with the juggler or the magician.

32. Watching them win at sports. (Or watching them lose with grace.)

33. Your husband is never as manly as he is when he is being Daddy with the kids.

34. Your dream vacations actually consist of doing things with your family instead of sunning yourself on a beach alone with your husband. And you don't care. You actually like it better.

35. Your husband becomes the strongest man in the world, and your daughter tells you that if he weren't already married to you, she'd marry her Daddy. Because he is perfect. (Which you always suspected, anyway.)

36. When your husband travels for work, you've got plenty of company!

37. What other reason do you have to read Beatrix Potter books out loud?

38. You get to skip through Wal Mart's parking lot while singing "Here We Go Looby-Loo."

39. You get to watch your husband skip through Wal Mart's parking lot. (No singing.)

40. Some day, when you are old and gray, little babies will come and visit you again, brought to you by the very same people who were once so small and tiny. And you'll get to experience so much of this list again. And, if you are blessed with a long life, again with your great-grandchildren.

http://karenedmisten.blogspot.com/2007/10/40-reasons-to-have-kids.html
40 Reasons to Have Kids.
(loosely based on her 40 reasons not to ....)

1. Desiring children with the man you love is as natural as breathing.

2. The experience of delivering a new life to the world is singularly exhilarating. If you fear pain, there's this lovely thing called an epidural.

3. Breastfeeding: it's not only economical, efficient, and good for the baby, but it releases hormones that relax and calm both mother and child, lulling both of you to sleep. Who wouldn't want a natural nap-inducer?

4. The world doesn't revolve around me and my daily desires.

5. Every human being has dignity and worth.

6. A child is an unbreakable bond between husband and wife. Love breeds love. And more love. And more. There's nothing more desirable than the father of your children.

7. A couple becomes a family  -- the whole becomes greater than its parts.

8. Having a child is a cooperation with the sacred.

9. Children are some of the most charming little people I know: full of wonder, curiosity and innate kindness. Properly nurtured, they become equally charming adults.

10. You get to read all the favorite books of your childhood all over again.

11. Children naturally grasp the lesson that people are more important than things.

12. Children teach us the freedom that comes with self-discipline and self-sacrifice.

13. The biggest drudgery is facing no one but myself day after day.

14. I am not ideal ... why should I expect my children to be? Kids teach us the joy of unconditional love and acceptance.

15. I will inevitably disappoint my children because I am not perfect. But, along the way, I'll be able to teach them that -- while nothing on this side of heaven is perfect -- the journey and the perfection that awaits us are worth every moment of trial on earth.

16. To remain or become a self-centered, self-enclosed egotist: what horror!

17. Taking time to care for the gifts I've been given ... yes, thank you.

18. Motherhood is a vocation: fulfilling, rewarding, and full of unpredictable surprises.

19. Families: they are a reflection of the Trinity.

20. Relive childhood and all of its innocent wonder and mirth.

21. To persist in saying "me first" is a sign of immaturity.

22. A child will ignite the fond memories of your own childhood.

23. While you cannot ensure that your child will be happy 100% of the time, the desire for her happiness is a good, admirable and unselfish thing.

24. The enchantment of being with one's children outweighs any and all other difficulties.

25. If you worry about sending them off to school, homeschooling is a delightful, intellectually stimulating option.

26. Do something to change the world. Have a child.  Raise a saint.

27. Revel in the simplicity of a child's unconditional love and trust.

28. Parenting will soften your hard edges and sharpen your compassion and empathy.

29. Motherhood is an insight into one's soul.  It's better than analysis.

30. Success is not defined only in terms of what one does for money.  To succeed as a mother is beyond worldly success.

31. When your husband becomes the father of your children, a new man appears: fiercely loving but practical and still-logical, nurturing but fiercely strong and protective. You will fall in love with him all over again.

32. The child to whom you give life may be the one to fight the culture of death and the notion of a brave new world.

33. "How can there be too many children? That is like saying there are too many flowers."  -- Blessed Teresa of Calcutta

34. Children whittle away your time in ways that are ultimately beneficial: they have an uncanny knack for getting rid of the meaningless hobbies that used to consume you.

35. Watching a child grow into a caring, sensitive soul is a reward that cannot be measured in book sales.

36. It's an awe-inspiring thing to have a child and the experience of feeling, "I didn't think I could ever love anyone that much."

37. Already have a child? Have another. Siblings are the best birthday presents, Christmas presents, Father's Day presents, Arbor Day presents ....

38. Baby toes.  Need I say more?

39. Okay, I'll say more.  Watching your baby sleep: You didn't know that angels could be held in your arms.

40. Worried about money?  What's worth more than a soul?

NaNoWriMo

I signed up for NaNoWriMo!  Write a novel of 50,000 words in the month of November!

While the concept is fascinating, I am afraid of starting it, and then fizzling out.  I am afraid it will take up too much time at the office.  I am afraid I will write something stunningly awful.

What better way to grow as a person than to confront those fears?  I signed up.

Yesterday I did a trial run, seeing how long it takes to write 3,000 words. 

Writing non-stop, stream-of-consciousness, I can do 3,000 words in 80 minutes.  Or, 40 words per minute.

Facta non Verba

I am getting sick of myself getting so wrapped up in the world of ideas and reading and planning that I never actually get things done.

Famous quote "I don't know much, but what I do know, I use." 
Famous quote "Facta non verba.  Deeds, not words"

Getting Motivated.  Need to end my analysis paralysis...

Guarding against psychopaths or sociopaths

Summary
Psychopaths are developmentally different from "normal" people.  According to Robert Hare they are "intraspecies predators who use charm, manipulation, intimidation and violence to control others and to satisfy their own selfish needs. Lacking in conscience and in feelings for others, they take what they want and do as they please, violating social norms and expectations without guilt or remorse. "

While there's debate on the whole nature/nurture cause, my take is that it appears to be genetic, and there seems to be no therapeutic "cure."  From what I've read, about 2% of men and 0.5% of women could fit the criteria of a psychopath.

To guard against them, judge people based on their deeds (especially how they treat others) rather than their words.  Psychopaths wear a "mask of sanity" and specialize in fooling people and manipulating them.  God help you if you're a needy person.  Psychopaths seem to find them more entertaining.  One of their motivations seems to be the entertainment derived from manipulating people.  Think of a bored child poking at an anthill.  Or a cat tormenting a mouse.  Needy people put up with a lot more crap and provide much more entertainment.

If you've identified a psychopath in your life, cut off all contact.  Anything you say or do in reaction to them is playing into their game of manipulating you.  Since they're motivated by self-interest, you might think it helps to have leverage that could damage their self-interest.  For example, collecting proof of criminal behavior to law enforcement or perhaps collecting evidence of financial shenanigans that may be of interest to the IRS.  But they also tend to not feel fear, nor have any desired future plans, nor respond much to punishment.  If you actually use it, then you'll have to worry about retaliation from them in the future.  So... have no contact and keep scorched earth retaliation capabilities in reserve.

Sin lies only in hurting other people unnecessarily. All other "sins" are invented nonsense. (Hurting yourself is not sinful---just stupid.) --Lazarus Long aka R.A. Heinlein

Can anything be done about these predators in our midst?  From their standpoint, there's nothing wrong with them.  From our standpoint, while we can certainly punish criminal behavior, but what do you do with someone who shows all the traits of a psychopath but doesn't commit any crimes?  Is causing emotional devastation a crime?  We've all hurt others emotionally... where do you draw the line?   I imagine in a tribal society, a psychopath would either kill the chief and take over, or else be killed by the chief or else shunned.  But in our modern world, a psychopath can hop from location to location and leave their reputation behind.  And know that most victims would rather just "move on" rather than commit a violent crime that could get them locked up. 

Stuff I've learned

Ah, I think I have found a reason and a motivation to post on the blog.

The reason?  to improve my writing skills, by doing a lot of it.  See the story of the pottery students who were graded by weight of pots vs the ones graded by the fineness of their pots. 

And the motivation?  I do a lot of web browsing.  Too much, some might say.  There's something really appealing to my brain about soaking up vast quantities of new information and synthesizing it into a usable set of guidelines.

To make sure that my browsing and analyzing doesn't "go to waste" I may as well summarize what I've learned here.    It actually ties in well with the theme, "Idea Froth" 

Onwards!

On the other hand...

After thinking about it overnight, if I want my kids to learn about who I am, posting my thoughts on a blog  isn't a very good way of accomplishing that.

I mean, the annual fees are pretty high.  And the company TypePad (or whoever aquires them in the future) needs to maintain its files for decades.  And I need to remember the URL.  And any really personal stuff will be self-censored because this is all public. 

Getting back to my original point... trying to find motivation for blogging.  I don't think it should be done to communicate with my kids.  I need another motivation... 

Other sources of motivation and why they won't work for me
Money/Business - initial payoff too low to keep me committed for long haul - certainly for "vague thoughts"
Fame - don't care enough about strangers on Internet
Desire to Tell my story - my lovely wife hears all my stories

For my children

I've not been maintaining this blog at all. 

No motivation.  Nobody to share my ideas with.  I don't have an intended audience.

That is... until now...

I should share what's going on in my head for my children, so that when they get older, they can get a glimpse of what's going on in my head while they're toddlers/preschoolers.

The downside...  A lot of my paper-based journaling is kinda muddled and poorly thought out and waffling and, essentially, "not a good example."

I suppose that's reality.  Parents are supposed to have an aura of infallibility, right?  Now that I'm a parent, I realize how much my parents, and everyone else, are figuring it out as we go along.

I also realize how as a kid, you think your parent's lives revolve around you.  I mean, that's why they exist, right?  To be your parents? 

Now I see how there's so much going on in life, so many demands and responsibilities and dreams and frustrations.  Children are a major major importance.  But though my worldview has expanded to embrace them, my concerns and thoughts encompass far more than them.

Another worry... How traceable will this be?  I'd like to be anonymous on this blog.  I only want certain people to know who I am.  Who my family is.  So.. I suppose initials will be used, where appropriate.

Grocery shopping for the office

Figured I needed some tasty food for the office.  I spend so much of my life there, might as well eat well.

Went to Ralphs after the Y, hungry enough for breakfast. 

Quite enjoyable thinking of fun foods for the office. 

• Milk and Tea. 
• Individual Tropicana orange juice cartons. 
• Tons of soups - both microwaveable and "just add water"
• Pickle spears
• Mandarin orange segments
• Stuffed grape leaves
• Breakfast burrito
• Cherry popover from bakery

Didn't want to get too much all at once.  It's 3pm, and I'm going to eat some grape leaves.

Adventures

How to create mini-adventures through the day?  Getting outside the routine, trying new things, etc.

New category called Adventures.